Forecasters predicted Monday that tropical storm Idalia will grow fast as it proceeds north into the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of Florida, becoming a Category 3 hurricane.
Satellite image on August 28 at 9:41 a.m. ET provided by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration shows Tropical Storm Idalia moving between Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula left, and Cuba on the right (Source: USA Today)
Tropical Storm Idalia to Dangerous Hurricane
“Idalia is poised to rapidly intensify tomorrow, meaning it can go from a tropical storm to a very dangerous hurricane within the next couple of days,” wrote Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science at the University of Miami, on X on Monday morning. He advised, “to have preparations completed by tropical storm conditions and plan to evacuate if told to.” Rapid intensification accelerates storm growth: A tropical cyclone (storm or hurricane) intensifying by at least 35 mph in 24 hours is the phenomenon.
Last year, Colorado State University hurricane specialist Phil Klotzbach stated that rapid intensification occurs when a tropical storm or hurricane encounters an unusually favorable environment. “This environment is typically characterized by warm water, low vertical wind shear, and high midlevel moisture.” Ken Graham, former National Hurricane Center director and current National Weather Service director, told USA TODAY that the most terrifying hurricanes in history have increased dramatically.
All but one of the ten storms with winds of 150 mph or higher that reached the US mainland in the previous 104 years saw rapid intensification. Hurricane Ian was battered by two 155-mph gusts last September before making landfall on Florida’s southwest coast. The National Hurricane Center predicted at 11 a.m. that “steady to fast strengthening will begin Tuesday as Idalia crosses the warm eastern Gulf waters and the upper-level environment improves.” The National Hurricane Center predicts that tropical storm Idalia will reach major hurricane strength before making landfall on Florida’s Gulf coast.
READ ALSO: Warnings are Announced as Tropical Storm Idalia’s Path May Take to Florida
Tropical Storm Idalia Could Become an Intensifying Hurricane Due to Warm Seawater
Meteorologists Robert Henson and Jeff Masters on the Yale Climate Connections blog say the storm will be powered by the northwest Caribbean’s warm seas (86 degrees Fahrenheit). “These deep warm waters provide significant oceanic heat and reduce the possibility that Idalia’s slow migration will produce major upwelling of cooler water. The eastern Gulf of Mexico is even warmer, with sea surface temperatures of 88°F below 100 feet.”
“These record-warm conditions will be especially dangerous ‘rocket fuel.'” “If Idalia reaches the “eastern Gulf as a well-organized storm,” they stated. “We should not be surprised if tropical storm Idalia makes landfall as a powerful, rapidly intensifying hurricane,” Henson and Masters added.
According to Jim Kossin, a hurricane scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and the charity First Street Foundation, they have been observing more and more explosive intensification over the last 5-to-10 years, which must be making everyone anxious. Recent rapid intensification episodes have been connected to climate change, creating a new normal that forecasters may find difficult to accept. Masters, a former NOAA hurricane hunter meteorologist, and Weather Underground founder, told USA TODAY that climate change is triggering more rapid intensification of Atlantic hurricanes.
READ ALSO: National Hurricane Center Forecasts Developing Tropical Storms Giving Warning to the Citizens
