At first glance, it might seem like there won’t be much drama in California this election.
The state is very blue. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio. Democrats have won eight presidential elections in a row in California, dating back to 1992. No Republican has won statewide office since 2006, when former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner triumphed the same year that “The Devil Wears Prada” was filling theaters.
Once the election results start pouring in, check back here to follow our live coverage.
But there are still enormous stakes for Californians on Tuesday night. Close races will shape local communities, the state and the nation for years to come. Here are five things to watch for as the results begin rolling in:
1) Who will win the White House?
In California, most voters cast ballots by mail. Election centers where people vote in person close at 8 p.m. Polls begin closing as early as 7 p.m. Eastern time in other parts of the nation.
In the bitterly divided race for 270 electoral votes, watch North Carolina. State law there allows election workers to count mail-in ballots before Election Day, so results should come in relatively early in the evening. Republican Donald Trump won North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes by just 1% over President Joe Biden in 2020. If Vice President Kamala Harris wins there, she’s probably headed for a big victory, experts say. If Trump prevails, the outcome may not be known for several days, because other key states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin don’t allow for early counting, and their results will be slower.
Trump has hinted that he might use any delay to declare an early victory and then falsely claim the election was stolen if he falls behind as more mail-in ballots are counted.
The presidential race has already been historic: On July 21, after a catastrophic debate performance, Biden, 81, became the first sitting president since Lyndon Johnson in 1968 to announce he wouldn’t seek a second term.
Harris, an Oakland native, would become the first female president in 248 years of American history. If Trump wins, he would become only the second president, after Grover Cleveland in the late 1800s, to lose re-election, run again, and win. Trump also would become the first convicted felon to win the presidency. He was convicted of 34 counts of business fraud by a New York jury on May 30 in connection with paying hush money to an adult film star, and faces sentencing Nov. 26.
“This will be one of the most important elections in American history,” said Jack Pitney, a professor of political science at Claremont McKenna College. “It is in the same category as 1860 and 1932 — not so much because of Kamala Harris, who would largely be a continuation of Biden, but because Trump is an outlier, to put it mildly. In a second term, he will be surrounded by enablers rather than guardrails.”
2) Is a law-and-order backlash coming?
Surveys show California voters are likely to approve Proposition 36, a ballot measure to increase penalties for retail theft and drug dealing, and require people convicted of possessing drugs such as fentanyl to undergo treatment or face jail.
Meanwhile, Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price are both facing recall elections, with critics saying they have been too soft on crime. San Francisco Mayor London Breed is trailing in her re-election effort, with crime and homeless encampments a major issue, as is Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascon, who won office four years ago on a progressive platform of criminal justice reform.
“People have seen smash-and-grab robberies, and open drug use at homeless encampments,” Pitney said. “In politics, perception is reality. Californians have a fairly conservative view on crime. Democrats don’t like getting mugged either.”
3) Who will control the U.S. Senate?
It’s all but certain that Adam Schiff, a Democratic congressman from Los Angeles, will defeat Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey to win former Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s U.S. Senate seat. He leads by 25 points in most polls.
The party that controls the Senate decides which laws the president can pass, and which judges, including Supreme Court justices, are confirmed.
Currently, Democrats have a bare 51-49 majority. But they are likely to lose a seat from West Virginia with the retirement of Joe Manchin. If Democrats win close races in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, they still will lose Senate control if incumbent Democrat Jon Tester of Montana can’t beat former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, a Republican he trails in the polls. If Tester loses, the only way Democrats can retain the majority would be upsets — like former NFL player Colin Allred beating Republican Ted Cruz in Texas, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell beating incumbent Republican Rick Scott in Florida, or independent Dan Osborn beating Republican incumbent Deb Fischer in Nebraska.
4) Who will control the House of Representatives?
Republicans hold a razor-thin majority in the House. With two vacancies in Democratic-leaning districts, Democrats are 4 seats short of the 218 they would need for a majority. Half a dozen races in the Central Valley and Southern California will be key.
“There are about 20 seats in the country where neither party has an edge and it’s close,” said Larry Gerston, professor emeritus of political science at San Jose State University. “Six are in California. People from all over the country are paying attention and vast amounts of money are pouring into these races.”
Five California Republican incumbents — David Valadao, Mike Garcia, John Duarte, Michelle Steele and Ken Calvert — are in races considered “toss ups” by the respected Cook Political Report. The other race, for an open seat in Orange County formerly held by Democrat Katie Porter, features a tight race between Democratic state Sen. Dave Min and Scott Baugh, a longtime GOP operative.
5) Who will win Silicon Valley’s coveted House seat?
The last time Silicon Valley saw a close race for the House was in 2016, when Ro Khanna beat Mike Honda. And now there is another.
Democrat Anna Eshoo, first elected in 1992, is retiring. Her 16th district, which runs from Pacifica to Palo Alto and includes parts of San Jose, voted for President Biden in 2020 by a 54-point margin. Two Democrats, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo and Assemblyman Evan Low, prevailed in the spring primary.
Liccardo, more linked to tech, has raised more money than Low, a labor favorite. And Liccardo led 31-20% in a USC poll taken in September.
“It has been a ugly race at times,” Gerston said. “But they have much more in common than not. Low is probably a shade more liberal than Liccardo. But on big issues, you rarely are going to see either one varying from what the other would have done. They reflect the district.”
