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4 factors that could tilt a wild presidential race


By John T. Bennett, CQ-Roll Call

WASHINGTON — Voters who have not yet cast ballots will head to the polls Tuesday, bringing one of the most wild and vitriolic presidential races in American history to an end — the campaigning at least, but perhaps not the legal battles.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the Democratic and Republican nominees, continued campaigning Monday in a contest that the latest polls suggest could be among the closest outcomes ever. True to the tone of their truncated race since late July, they both continued to plead for votes by warning as much about their opponent as trying to sell their own ideas.

“We want to go to Mars and all,” Trump said Monday at a rally in Raleigh, N.C., before minutes later slamming President Joe Biden over terminating a permit for the XL Pipeline on his first day in office. “What I want it for is defense. … You’ve got to be in space. … We were being lapped by China. They’ve got a lot of stuff up there.” It was the latest example of what Trump refers to as “the weave,” his own distinct, if meandering, set of exhortations.

Harris, on the flip side, mostly stuck to her stump speech at stop after stop, reprising lines even in interviews.

People wait in line to cast their ballots on the last day of early voting for the general election in Michigan
People wait in line to cast their ballots on the last day of early voting for the general election in Michigan at the Livingston Educational Service Agency in Howell, Michigan on Nov. 3, 2024. (Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images/TNS) 

Issues like the economy and the nixing of federal abortion rights protections by the Supreme Court’s six conservative justices have long been among voters’ top issues, according to polling data and reporting. But evidence suggests other factors in recent days and weeks would also play a major role.

After some positive October polling data points for Trump, surveys released over the weekend suggest any momentum for him has stalled.

Vegas Insider, an oddsmaker, dropped his chances of winning over the weekend. “While Trump still holds the lead, the sudden drop over the weekend — from 64.49 percent to 58.49 percent — suggests that confidence may be waning among bettors,” a spokesperson said in a Monday statement. “Meanwhile, Harris’s surge by 5 points to 45.85 percent highlights her growing momentum, making this a tighter race than before.”

Here is a snapshot of the issues and factors that should tip the election.

Keystone ‘collar counties’

All eyes have been on Pennsylvania for months, even before Biden ended his bid for a second term.

The most recent polls in the Keystone State showed a dead heat, with a New York Times polling average updated Monday putting Trump narrowly ahead, 49 percent to 48 percent. During a Roll Call reporting trip to Bucks County, a Philadelphia suburb won by Democrats the last two elections, interviews were split, with voters describing their home as “divided” and split “50-50.”

Former GOP Rep. Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania said in a telephone interview that “I’d rather be Harris than Trump right now,” adding: “She has the better ground game and more energy, and she certainly has more growth potential than Trump.”

With Trump likely to again take most of the state’s rural counties, Dent said the main counties to watch are the “collar counties” that wrap around Philadelphia, and “Bucks, in particular.” But also, in a twist, the City of Brotherly Love, too.

“From what I’m seeing and hearing, it’s likely Harris won’t come out as strong in Philadelphia because of some erosion with Black and Latino voters from where [Hillary Clinton] was and where Biden was,” Dent said. “She’s going to win Philadelphia big. But the question is: Will it be big enough to offset Trump’s totals in all those red counties? She really needs those ‘collar counties.’”

‘Whether the women like it or not’

During a rally last week, Trump dropped another comment that could alienate women voters — a key voting bloc his campaign aides want to appeal to, but which the candidate has publicly said is not a problem.

Polls show a clear gender gap.



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