We have reached the midway point of an unprecedented college football season, with conference realignment and the expanded playoff heaping storylines onto a sport already oozing intrigue.
With seven weeks down and seven remaining, the Big Ten race features three preseason favorites (Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State) and a massive surprise (Indiana).
It does not, however, include the teams that played for the national championships last season (Michigan and Washington).
Here’s a review of the first half.
Top storyline: West Coast weakness
Oregon has performed like a playoff team, but the Big Ten’s other newcomers are struggling with the transition: USC is 1-3 in conference play; Washington isn’t much better (2-2); and UCLA is dreadful (0-4), which isn’t all that surprising. The trio is winless on the road against Big Ten opponents, wobbly at the line of scrimmage and erratic with basic execution. And each team faces a difficult remaining schedule that makes it easy to envision finishes on the third tier of the standings.
Biggest surprise: Indiana
The Big Ten does not produce a preseason media poll, so Cleveland.com steps into the void each summer. And in the 2024 version, Indiana was picked 17th. At the time, the placement seemed entirely reasonable given the state of the Hoosiers’ roster, their recent history and the coaching change (to Curt Cignetti). A few months later, the projection looks laughable. Indiana is 6-0 and tied with Oregon and Penn State atop the conference. From the looks of their schedule, the Hoosiers should remain in the race deep into November.
Biggest disappointment: USC
The Hotline didn’t have high expectations for the Trojans given the presumed decline offensively and the modest improvement defensively. But they haven’t managed to reach our low bar with second half collapses against Michigan, Minnesota and Penn State. That said, Big Ten officiating has done them no favors. The decision on Minnesota’s touchdown was baffling (given the lack of video evidence) while the missed pass interference calls at the end of the Penn State game were egregious. And the Trojans thought they were leaving the bad calls behind them in the Pac-12.
Best game: Oregon 32, Ohio State 31
The most anticipated game of the Big Ten season somehow managed to exceed the hype as two powerhouse teams went back and forth for 60 well-played minutes last weekend (only one turnover and 11 penalties). The outcome was in doubt until the clock expired with OSU quarterback Will Howard sliding one second too late. The entire spectacle left the Hotline dreaming of a rematch in the conference championship.
Top coach: Oregon’s Dan Lanning
You could make a great case for Cignetti, but our vote goes to Lanning because he won the biggest game of the season thus far and because Indiana’s schedule has been fairly soft. Every decision Lanning made Saturday night worked perfectly, from the rocket onside kick to the 12-men-on-the-field penalty to the plays called and substitutions made. We dinged Lanning for his decisions last year against Washington. He deserves immense praise for his work against the Buckeyes.
Hottest seats: USC’s Lincoln Riley and UCLA’s DeShaun Foster
To be clear: The Hotline doesn’t expect either coach to be terminated during, or after, the season. The Trojans have too much money invested in Riley — the buyout likely would be in excess of $60 million — and the Bruins have too much emotional capital invested in Foster, a former UCLA star in his first year as head coach. But it’s also abundantly clear that Riley’s program isn’t equipped to compete for the Big Ten title and that Foster has a steep learning curve ahead. Pac-12 fans with lingering resentment toward the L.A. schools can take the schadenfreude path, but remember: They didn’t do it for the wins; they did it for the money and the platform.
Best offensive player: Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke
We considered Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel, but he was mediocre in several early-season games while Rourke has been superb throughout. The Ohio transfer leads the nation in passer rating (192.1) with 14 touchdowns, two interceptions and four games in which he has completed at least 75 percent of his attempts. Let’s also mention Iowa tailback Kaleb Johnson and Penn State tight end Tyler Warren. All that said, the best offensive talent in the conference is Ohio State freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith, and it’s not close.
Best defensive player: Penn State DE Abdul Carter
The future first-round pick has 9.5 tackles-for-loss, fifth among players in the Power Four conferences, and is a consistent wrecking ball despite all the attention paid to his every step. (Carter also has four sacks, three pass-breakups and a forced fumble.) But there was stiff competition in this category from Michigan cornerback Will Johnson and defense tackle Mason Graham, plus a few others.
Biggest miscalculation: Michigan’s QB situation
The Wolverines opted against taking a top-tier quarterback from the transfer portal, and it cost them dearly: Only three FBS teams are averaging fewer passing yards than the Wolverines (115 per game), and two of them, Army and Air Force, run the triple option. (The other is New Mexico State.) Meanwhile, Indiana, Ohio State, Washington and Oregon have benefitted immensely from transfer quarterbacks.
Keep an eye on: Traveling teams
This might come as a surprise, but it appears long flights have an adverse impact on performance. Big Ten teams that have crossed at least two time zones for conference games are 3-10 on the scoreboard and 3-9-1 against the spread, suggesting they have underperformed even in victory. The most difficult assignments, in our opinion, are the 9 a.m. (Pacific) kickoffs for the West Coast teams playing in the Eastern and Central Time Zones. UCLA gets its second early start Saturday (at Rutgers), while Washington draws its second next week (at Indiana).
Fearless prediction: Washington won’t go bowling
The postseason odds seemingly favor the Huskies (4-3), who need only two wins in their final five games to become bowl eligible, but their schedule is just this side of brutal. They host UCLA, which should be their fifth victory. The other four opponents are Indiana (6-0), Penn State (6-0) and Oregon (6-0) on the road and USC (3-3) at home. UW’s bowl fate seemingly hinges on slaying the Trojans in early November. That could go either way, in our view.
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