Instant reaction to developments on the field …
1. October checkup
We’re halfway through the first football season of this new era, with the former Pac-12 schools scattered across three conferences and 3,000 miles.
From a competitive standpoint, the past seven weeks have been nothing short of a Cal-amity.
No, make that a Troy-gedy.
An indisp-Ute-able disappointment.
Put another way: The results are as bad as those puns.
Two of the departed schools have losing records, and three are merely .500.
It’s entirely possible that only one, Oregon, will crack the AP Top 25 when the new poll is released Sunday morning.
Nowhere is the gloom more palpable than at USC, which somehow is already eliminated from the College Football Playoff even though it beat LSU in the ballyhooed season opener.
Since then, the Trojans have lost three Big Ten games, each in come-from-ahead fashion. They were outscored 27-10 after halftime by Penn State, 14-0 in the fourth quarter by Minnesota and 7-0 in the final minute by Michigan.
As a result, USC won’t make the CFP field through the at-large route and is effectively eliminated from the conference championship game.
Get ready for two months of speculation about Lincoln Riley’s job security, which is rapidly becoming a fair and reasonable topic given that he’s collecting roughly $10 million annually and has put a decidedly mediocre product on the field for the past season-and-a-half.
That said, at least Riley and Co. are blowing leads on broadcast television and not a regional cable network.
2. Shall we go on?
What about the 2023 Pac-12 champion and national runner-up? Glad you asked.
Washington also has three losses after getting steamrollered at Iowa on Saturday morning, which followed (by a few weeks) the narrow loss at Rutgers and the equally narrow loss to Washington State in the Apple Cup.
But there’s far more to UW’s predicament than the 4-3 record. Its upcoming schedule includes the best teams in the Big Ten: Indiana, Oregon and Penn State, which have a combined record of 18-0. The Huskies play all three on the road, meaning their climb into the postseason — it requires at least six wins — will be treacherous.
Of course, the Trojans and Huskies look like playoff teams compared to UCLA, which lost its fifth consecutive game on Saturday (to Minnesota) and is a serious threat to finish last in the Big Ten.
If not for Purdue, the Bruins would be the frontrunner for the cellar. They appear completely ill-prepared for their new existence, have a brutal schedule ahead and will be fortunate to win three games under rookie coach DeShaun Foster.
The situation is not quite as bleak for Arizona. But the Wildcats, who finished the 2023 season on a seven-game winning streak, are floundering with a 3-3 record after losing decisively at Brigham Young on Saturday afternoon.
(Not on our Big 12 bingo card: Arizona winning at Utah by two touchdowns and losing at BYU by three.)
That brings us to the Utes, who were picked to win the Big 12 and reach the CFP. At the moment, they are closer to last place than first after losing to the team that was, in fact, picked last, Arizona State.
Not surprisingly, the schools that entered the ACC are struggling.
Stanford is 2-4 overall, has lost three consecutive games by 92 points and desperately needs to upgrade its quarterback play.
Cal created quite the buzz with an early-season victory at Auburn and the so-called Calgorithm, which has swept social media. But the Bears are 0-3 in conference play, with the losses by a grand total of eight points.
3. Now, for the caveats
It’s not all doom and gloom on the field.
Oregon just beat Ohio State in a Saturday night thriller in Autzen Stadium to remain undefeated and on track for a playoff berth. The new world order suits the Ducks just fine; they were vastly better positioned than USC, UCLA and Washington to thrive immediately in the Big Ten.
Also, Arizona State is one of the biggest surprises of the season. Slotted for last place in the Big 12, the Sun Devils are 5-1 — and one game away from a bowl berth — after slaying Utah on Friday night. (Talk about altered trajectories: ASU lost to the Utes by 52 points last season and beat them by eight this weekend.)
And we should mention Colorado’s upturn in Year 2 under Deion Sanders. Despite the loss to Kansas State late Saturday night, the Buffaloes (4-2) are on track to exceed projections.
However, there is more to realignment than on-field results over seven measly weeks. After all, the 10 schools didn’t decide to abandon the Pac-12 simply because they wanted tougher competition and more losses.
They did it for the money and the media exposure, and those benefits remain firmly in place.
Most of them are appearing regularly on major broadcast and cable networks. And there’s no chance the checks from the conference offices will bounce.
For anyone wondering if there are feelings of regret on any of the 10 campuses, allow us to interject: No chance.
Our critique of the on-field results over seven weeks merely reflects a snapshot of a sliver of a pixel of the broader canvas.
The schools are playing the long game, folks. And that’s the smart play, the practical play.
4. To CFP or not to CFP
That said, we cannot help but wonder if the competitive situation has been undervalued in the broader context of conference realignment.
Qualifying for the 12-team playoff means everything in college football’s new universe, particularly with the specter of a super league looming over the sport.
That momentous step is likely five-to-seven years away because of the existing media contracts between the conferences and their network partners.
As a result, the expanded playoff should be viewed not only as a grand stage for the school to market themselves in real time but as the set for an audition. Playoff appearances and successes could ensure a ticket into the exclusive world to come.
But for every departed Pac-12 school, the path into the CFP will be more difficult in a given year in their reconfigured conferences than it would have been without the realignment moves.
The enhanced competition is already apparent, as are the demands of cross-country travel for the Big Ten and ACC schools.
5. Meanwhile, in the Pac-12 …
The real-time competitive situation is marginally better for Washington State, not so much for Oregon State.
The Cougars survived a scare at Fresno State on Saturday and used a fourth quarter Pick Six to secure their fifth victory in six games.
They are a lock for the postseason, in part because the second-half schedule is stocked with low-value opponents.
(Their best chance to remain on the national stage fizzled when they lost at Boise State by three touchdowns.)
The Beavers’ situation is more dire than it looks after the loss at Nevada lowered their record to 4-2, and here’s why:
They need two wins for a bowl berth but have only one remaining game, at Air Force, that could be considered a likely victory.
Otherwise, it’s one toss-up after another for OSU down the stretch, and that’s a risky existence for a program desperate to remain relevant.
Seven weeks from now, we could look back at the loss in Reno as the result that kept OSU home for the holidays.
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