Many words have been written and spoken about Oregon’s hotly-anticipated date with Ohio State on Saturday evening in Autzen Stadium. Many, many words.
The Hotline plans to add to the total by only 313 with the following assessment …
Oregon wins.
It’s close, but Oregon wins because:
— The schematic advantage Ohio State possesses over 10 teams on its schedule does not exist against the Ducks. They know Ohio State playcaller Chip Kelly as well as he knows them. True, Kelly has better players than he did at UCLA, but it’s not all about personnel. Tactics matter. Tendencies matter. Alignments and assignments matter. The Ducks won’t stop Ohio State, but they will slow the Buckeyes enough to make a difference.
— Oregon’s defensive front is big enough to hold its own against the Buckeyes where it matters most: at the line of scrimmage on the handful of short-yardage plays that will tip the balance. Ohio State’s starting offensive line last week (against Iowa) averaged 316 pounds per player. The heart of Oregon’s starting defensive front (Jordan Burch, Jamaree Caldwell and Derrick Harmon) averages 315 pounds. The Ducks won’t get pushed around.
— The travel is a factor. Big Ten teams crossing multiple time zones for conference games are just 1-8 thus far. (Of the eight losing teams, only two covered the spread: UCLA and Michigan State in lopsided losses.) The Buckeyes have been on the road just once this season, to Michigan State, and have not crossed the Mississippi for a regular-season game in three years. Add Oregon’s extra day to prepare, and the logistics are stacked against OSU.
— Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel will rise to the moment after a wobbly effort last week against Michigan State. Our faith is rooted in his performance the last time Gabriel played a game of this magnitude: as Oklahoma’s starter in the 2023 Red River Rivalry. All he did was complete 23-of-38 passes, run for 114 yards and orchestrate a game-winning drive in the final minute to topple Texas. The best quarterback on the field Saturday will be wearing black and green.
Oregon wins, but it’s close: 26-24.
To the picks …
Last week: 6-2
Season: 29-21
Five-star special: 3-3
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com
(All times Pacific)
Utah (-3.5) at Arizona State (Friday)
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: No word yet on Utah quarterback Cam Rising’s availability, although the timing seems favorable with the Utes coming off a bye. ASU has a chance to prove it’s legit and avenge a 55-3 loss last year in Salt Lake City. The line opened with the Utes favored by five points. It’s moving the wrong way. Pick: Utah
Washington (+2.5) at Iowa
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox
Comment: A long trip and an early kickoff time make this a steep challenge for the Huskies, who are also vulnerable to a letdown after the Michigan victory and subsequent field storming. As noted above, we don’t trust Big Ten teams flying across the Rockies. Pick: Iowa
Penn State (-4.5) at USC
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: The Trojans are desperate after the controversial loss at Minnesota — their second conference loss — and have a few too many playmakers for the Nittany Lions. Our selection presumes USC will find a way to keep quarterback Miller Moss upright more often than not. (And yes, we could regret that presumption.) Pick: USC
Cal (+3.5) at Pittsburgh
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: We usually like Cal coach Justin Wilcox as an underdog, but not in this instance — not after the gut-punch loss to Miami and a long trip to face an opponent that does not elicit the same energy as, for example, Auburn, Florida State or the Hurricanes. Pick: Pittsburgh
Texas (-14.5) vs. Oklahoma (in Dallas)
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: This rivalry is always close unless Oklahoma has quarterback issues (see: Texas 49, OU 0 in 2022). And guess what? The Sooners have quarterback issues. The line opened with the Longhorns favored by 8.5 and has soared. We think value still exists. Pick: Texas
Arizona (+3.5) at Brigham Young
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The Wildcats have been as erratic as the undefeated Cougars have been consistent. Add BYU’s advantage at the line of scrimmage and the extra week to prepare — meanwhile, the Wildcats spent last weekend losing at home to Texas Tech — and this feels far more lopsided than the line suggests. Pick: BYU
Washington State (-3.5) at Fresno State
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on FS1
Comment: A dangerous game for WSU, which was bludgeoned in its only previous true road game (at Boise State). This is not one of Fresno State’s better teams, so the Cougars should have plenty of chances to take control. Whether they are successful depends largely on executing the basics of blocking and tackling. Pick: Washington State
Oregon State (-3.5) at Nevada
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: The Beavers desperately need a victory to make their bowl math manageable and face an opponent that has beaten Troy and Eastern Washington and nobody else. This tangle in the world’s biggest little city should not be close in the fourth quarter. Pick: Oregon State
Ohio State (-3.5) at Oregon
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: We covered the specifics above but would add this: The pressure is on Ohio State, because the pressure is always on Ohio State. Pick: Oregon
Kansas State (-3.5) at Colorado
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The betting public continues to undervalue the Buffaloes, who have covered the spread in three consecutive games and are better than they were last year. Pick: Colorado
Straight-up winners: Utah, Iowa, USC, Pittsburgh, Texas, BYU, WSU, OSU, Oregon and Colorado
Five-star special: BYU. The Cougars are undefeated on the field and undefeated against the spread. We’re riding until they boot us off.
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