California likely had fewer traffic fatalities in 2024 than in the past five years, nearly returning to pre-pandemic numbers.
An estimated 2,824 people died in motor vehicle crashes in the Golden State in the first nine months of 2024, according to new preliminary data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration — down from more than 3,000 in the same timeframe in 2023.
The decrease in California mirrors a national decline, with initial data suggesting a drop in 35 states and Puerto Rico. Across the country, about 29,135 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes between January and September 2024, a decrease of about 4.4% from the 30,490 fatalities for the first nine months of 2023.
That’s even as people drove more. According to the NHTSA, the number of vehicle miles traveled increased nationally by 19.7 billion miles in the first nine months of 2024 — 0.8% more than the same time last year. The U.S. fatality rate dropped from 1.24 to 1.18 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled. California’s rate also decreased.
Still, there have been fluctuations locally and nationally in recent years, and experts say it’s too early to tell whether the drop in fatalities nationally and in California will stick once final numbers are in.
“I think the one-year-to-one-year comparison is not enough to tell us that we’re really moving in the right direction, and we need to see more data in a longer time frame,” said John Goodwin, assistant director of communications for the Association of Bay Area Governments, a regional planning agency that promotes collaboration among local governments in the San Francisco Bay Area to build stronger, healthier communities.
Bay Area Vision Zero initiatives, part of a nationwide movement to eliminate traffic injuries and fatalities, brings together the Association of Bay Area Governments and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission.
California’s 2,824 traffic fatalities for the first nine months of 2024 accounted for nearly one in 10 nationally. Texas led the U.S. in traffic fatalities for the first nine months of 2024, with 3,049, down 4.6% from the 3,196 the Lone Star State recorded for the same period in 2023. Texas’ fatality rate for the first nine months of 2024 also was higher than California’s at 1.34. Florida had a fatality rate of 1.31 with 2,290 fatalities for the period in 2024, down 8.1% from the same time in 2023. New York had 813 deaths for the period in 2024, down 3.6%, with a 0.89 fatality rate.
NHTSA releases early preliminary traffic crash estimates quarterly. Fatalities include drivers, passengers, bicyclists or pedestrians who died from a motor vehicle collision on a roadway. Complete and finalized annual data is typically released the following year after more comprehensive verification and analysis by the agency.
In Calfornia, annual traffic fatalities rose from 3,837 in 2016 to a decade-high 4,428 in 2022 before dropping to 4,013 in 2023. The state counted 3,052 fatalities in the first nine months of 2023 and a fatality rate of 1.27 per 100 million vehicle miles traveled. That’s a 7.5% reduction from 2,824 deaths and a 1.16 fatality rate for the same period in 2024.
The NHTSA only reports U.S. and statewide data. According to the California Highway Performance Management System, the San Francisco Bay Area recorded 40,137 total traffic crashes from January through November 2024, an increase of 2,092 from 38,045 in all of 2023. But the system doesn’t record fatalities from those crashes.
“While we’re encouraged by the continued decline in traffic fatalities, our work is far from done,” said Sophie Shulman, deputy administrator of NHTSA. “NHTSA remains deeply committed to reducing traffic fatalities by embracing the safe system approach and striving for the day when we will see zero deaths on our nation’s roads.”
Across the country, Maine saw the most significant increase in fatalities, rising 39.8% from 98 in 2023 to 137 in 2024. Nebraska followed with a 25.2% increase (155 to 194), and Washington, D.C., rose 21.9% (32 to 39). These trends indicate a need for focused safety measures, according to NHTSA.
Wyoming had the steepest decline, with fatalities dropping 30% (110 to 77). Rhode Island decreased by 35.7% (56 to 36), and Vermont saw a 19.2% reduction (52 to 42).
The third quarter of 2024 represents the 10th consecutive quarterly decline in fatalities nationally, beginning with the second quarter of 2022.
