Political analyst Dave Wasserman, who’s known for covering the electoral fortunes of the U.S. House of Representatives, is also known for making a bold prediction in September 2016.
Two months prior to Election Day, Wasserman wrote that Donald Trump could win the presidential election without winning the popular vote. Republicans, including George W. Bush in 2000, had done that before, but it appeared at that electoral moment that Trump was unlikely to repeat the feat.
A projection by the pre-eminent poll analyzer FiveThirtyEight was showing Hillary Clinton with a 63 or 64 percent chance of winning the election.
This week Wasserman shared data regarding the GOP’s 2024 takeover of the House: “Fact: in 2024, the House majority was decided by just 7,309 votes across three districts (#IA01, #CO08 and #PA07) out of 148 million votes cast nationwide.”
Note: The districts listed above in Iowa, Colorado, and Pennsylvania were won by Trump-endorsed Republicans Mariannette Miller Meeks (an extremely close race that required a recount), Gabe Evans, and Ryan Mackenzie.
Former Secretary of State and Senator Hillary Clinton — who won the popular vote in 2016 — replied to Wasserman with a warning: “Don’t fall for it when House Republicans claim they have a ‘mandate’ to push through more tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans or make health care less affordable.”
Citing Wasserman, Clinton asserted that any GOP “mandate” claim is a falsehood exposed by contradictory data.
Don’t fall for it when House Republicans claim they have a “mandate” to push through more tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans or make health care less affordable. https://t.co/4jgeohIdRP
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) December 11, 2024
Yet Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA), who will have to work with the slimmest of GOP majorities in his chamber, claimed a mandate — especially concerning MAGA positions on immigration and “ending wokeness.”
U.S. House GOP claims mandate on immigration, lower food prices, ‘end to the wokeness’https://t.co/IUkc2LYuV6
— Jennifer Shutt (@JenniferShutt) November 12, 2024
Note: After Trump won the 2024 popular vote “by one of the slightest margins since the 19th century” and called it a “landslide” victory, The New York Times ran the headline ‘The Landslide That Wasn’t: Trump and Allies Pump Up His Narrow Victory.’
Clinton replied then: “There is no mandate for American dictatorship, actually.”
There is no mandate for American dictatorship, actually.https://t.co/trISiMWF8D pic.twitter.com/iyfDglGO9X
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) November 25, 2024
NOTE: Lending perspective to the narrowness of the 2024 GOP advantage, Wasserman added for comparison that “in 2022, the House majority was decided by 6,675 votes across five narrowly GOP-won districts (#CA13, #CO03, #IA03, #MI10 and #NY17), and in 2020 it was decided by 31,751 votes across five narrowly Dem-won districts (#IL14, #IA03, #NJ07, #TX15 and #VA07).”
