Prices accelerated in September, though the overall inflation rate continued to drift lower. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 2.4 percent from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021. Some of the details of the report were more important than usual.
Although consumers complain about food costs, food at home is up by just 1.3% from a year ago, while those who dine out must absorb a 3.9% annual increase. The most impactful category of the report is shelter, which did show some progress, but continues to keep the core CPI elevated. Shelter is up 4.9% from a year ago, accounting for 65% of the total increase of core inflation.
There have long been complaints that the CPI report lags more timely data. According to Apartment List, rents dropped by a half of percentage point in September and are slightly cheaper than they were a year ago. The median rent nationally now stands at $1,405 and is expected to continue to dip modestly through the remainder of the year. Despite this progress, the national median rent is still more than $200 per month higher than it was just a few years ago.
Although the inflation rate has been falling steadily since peaking in mid-2022, the nation’s near 68 million Social Security recipients (retired workers and their dependents, disabled Americans and their dependents and survivors), were focused on a sub-category of the report called CPI-W, not the headline rate which is called CPI-U. The reason is that CPI-W is the basis for determining the annual Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA).
The COLA for 2025 will be 2.5%, down from this year’s 3.2% bump and a lot lower than the 2023 COLA of 8.7%. But the reason is a good one: the inflation rate has been decreasing. As a reminder, when prices dropped on an annual basis, like in 2010, 2011 and 2016, Social Security COLA was a big fat ZERO. As a frame of reference, even with the post-COVID inflation spike, over the last decade the COLA increase has averaged about 2.6%.
With the 2025 COLA announcement, the average Social Security check for individual retirees will increase from $1,927 per month to $1,976, providing an average $49 monthly boost. Hopefully, as the inflation rate retreats towards the Federal Reserve’s desired target of 2%, SS recipients will be able to pocket the difference throughout the year.
The annual SS COLA is yet another reason to try to delay claiming your Social Security benefit to at least your Full Retirement Age (66-67, depending on the year of your birth) or to age 70, when you can receive credits for delaying filing that can boost retirement savings significantly. The higher Social Security benefit, the more money that you can collect every year when the COLA is announced.
Disaster relief
Many of you have asked the best way to help the victims of Hurricanes Helen and Milton. According to FEMA, “financial contributions to recognized disaster relief organizations are the fastest, most flexible and most effective method of donating.” While there are a number of state-level options, here are three national organizations to consider:
— American Red Cross
— Americares
— Salvation Army
Sadly, natural disasters bring out the fraudsters. The FTC cautions that consumers be on the lookout for the solicitation of donations for disaster victims from organizations that often imitate the names of charities linked to the disaster.
Be cautious, vet your charity, and do not share your personal info, donate over the phone or give anyone your credit card or other personal information until you verify it’s legitimate.
Jill Schlesinger, CFP, is a CBS News business analyst. A former options trader and CIO of an investment advisory firm, she welcomes comments and questions at [email protected]. Check her website at www.jillonmoney.com.
