In one regard, the Pac-12 hasn’t splintered: All 12 schools remain tied to the bowls affiliated with the conference in recent years. Exceptions are made for teams that qualify for the College Football Playoff as conference winners or at-large entrants. Otherwise, what’s past is present for the 2024-25 seasons.
The Hotline will provide weekly projections for the teams throughout the regular season.
Please note: We also unveil our weekly CFP picks each Monday.
The Pac-12 bowl situation is easy to picture but difficult to monitor.
Yes, the same 12 schools that competed in the conference for years will participate in the same collection of bowls as in the past. But they are scattered across four leagues, complicating the process of comparing overall records.
And those records, not placement in the standings, will determine which teams go where for the holidays.
Allow us to offer a brief summary of the situation at the midpoint of this unusual season.
— Clinched a bowl berth: Oregon
— Need one win in six games: Arizona State and Washington State
— Need two wins in six games: Colorado, Oregon State, Utah and Washington.
(Technically, the Huskies, who have played one more game than everyone else, need two wins in their final five.)
— Need three wins in six games: Arizona, Cal and USC
— Staring at elimination: Stanford and UCLA
That all seems reasonable enough, except when you drill down a layer and cross-match the number of victories needed with the remaining schedules.
At that point, the outlook becomes a tad gloomy.
Don’t be surprised if Oregon and Washington State are the only members of the group that finish with more than eight wins. In fact, that’s exactly how we see this playing out.
And if that scenario becomes reality, the Pac-12 will be sending a load of six- and seven-win teams to higher-tier bowl games (e.g., the Alamo, Holiday and Las Vegas) to face opponents with far gaudier records.
To the projections …
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten champion)
Comment: Full credit to Dan Lanning. The Hotline has been critical of his game management in the past (see: every loss to Washington), but he made all the right moves against Ohio State. As a result, the Ducks (6-0) can book their ticket to the CFP, although a home game in the opening round awaits if they don’t win the Big Ten title.
Alamo Bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: The Pac-12 bowl selection rules prevent one team from getting displaced by another if there’s a difference of at least two wins. Our forecast calls for WSU (5-1) finishing with 10 victories and nobody else (except Oregon) even winning nine, thereby protecting the Cougars’ position and sending them to the Alamo.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Colorado
Comment: As long as Deion Sanders is running the show in Boulder, the Buffaloes (4-2) will land in the most prestigious bowl their record allows: With six wins, they will jump the teams with seven; with seven wins, they will jump the teams with eight; and so on.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: Ending the season in the stadium where it all began, albeit against a different SEC opponent — Mississippi, perhaps? — would be a respectable outcome for the Trojans (3-3) given the current state of affairs.
Sun Bowl
Team: Utah
Comment: We stuck with the Utes (4-2) as the projected Big 12 champs until the evidence against them became overwhelming. Now it’s a question of how far they fall — and the drop could be significant if the losses mount and bowl officials sense the fans becoming disenchanted.
LA Bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: The schedule eases after a brutal start that featured three cross-country trips and a home date with Miami. There are plenty of wins available if the Bears (3-3) can consistently score more than 20 points.
Independence Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: The Sun Devils (5-1) are on the brink of a bowl berth, but that final step won’t be easy. Four of their last six are on the road, and one of the home dates is with Brigham Young. Nonetheless, we envision a 7-5 mark, which would put ASU in play for several bowls.
ESPN bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: The Hotline is not entirely convinced UW (4-3) will qualify for the postseason — there are more losses than wins remaining on the schedule. If they land in this slot, ESPN could send them to the Gasparilla, Armed Forces or First Responders Bowls.
At-large bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: If only one of the 12 jumps into the CFP (i.e., Oregon), there could be more bowl-eligible teams than there are slots available in Pac-12-affiliated bowls. In that case, teams at the low end of the pecking order — hello, Arizona (3-3) — would fill vacancies elsewhere.
At-large bowl
Team: Oregon State
Comment: The Beavers (4-2) are in a precarious position with two wins required and a difficult schedule ahead. If Oregon State loses to UNLV this week, then dates with San Jose State (home) and Air Force (road) become critical.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: The Cardinal (2-4) opens the 2025 season in Hawaii, so that’s something to look forward to.
Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: The Bruins (1-5) open the 2025 season against Utah, so that’s — err, never mind.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to [email protected] or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline
