Senior Pentagon officials warned US Congress on Tuesday that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would likely fail and a direct military invasion would be tough for Beijing.
Beijing asserts that Taiwan is part of its territory and has vowed to take control of the island at some point in the future. Officials in the United States government, a critical supporter of Taiwan, have speculated that an invasion may take place. (Source: Reuters)
Chinese Blockade of Taiwan is A Challenging Move
China’s military has increased action around self-governing Taiwan, which Beijing wants to reunify with. Taiwan rejects Chinese sovereignty claims. Director William Burns of the US Central Intelligence Agency stated Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered his military to invade by 2027. Whether Mr. Xi would command a blockade or invasion of Taiwan is unclear.
Ely Ratner, the United States assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, said a blockade would allow Taiwan’s allies time to mobilize resources. He suggested that the economic costs of a blockade would increase international pressure on Beijing. Mr Ratner told the House Armed Services Committee that it was unlikely to work and that it would pose a significant risk of escalation for the PRC, forcing it to assess if it was willing to eventually begin attacking commercial maritime boats.
Carrying Out Blockade, How Will It Be?
According to Joint Staff vice-director for Strategy, Planning, and Policy Army Major-General Joseph McGee, the challenges made a blockade implausible. Maj-Gen McGee told legislators that he believes it is an option, but not a likely one because when it comes to military choices, it is much simpler to talk about a blockade than to really carry one out.
China staged military drills around Taiwan in August and April of this year, and its personnel are present there almost every day. According to Taiwan’s Defense Ministry’s annual report released last week, China was constantly deploying new fighters and drones to enlarged air sites along Taiwan’s coast. Maj-Gen McGee also warned China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) that an amphibious invasion on the island would be difficult. He contended that it couldn’t do it in a surprise attack either. They’d have to gather tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of troops on the east coast and send a signal. He went on to say that a PLA invasion of Taiwan is not going to be easy.
