Mark Thomas Esper, an American politician and manufacturing executive just returned from a week in Taiwan, where he met with President Tsai Ing-wen, his cabinet, and other departments. He wanted to explore what had changed since his summer visit, just days before Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit that sparked this very tense era between Taipei, Washington, and Beijing.
Defense Secretary Mark Esper listens during a Cabinet meeting with President Donald Trump in the White House on May 19, 2020. (Source :Evan Vucci/AP)
The former Defense Secretary believes Taiwan has to Pack up Its Military Defense
Last year, former defense secretary Mark Esper believed Taiwan needed to do more, faster, to bolster its defenses and discourage Chinese President Xi Jinping from assaulting this prosperous democracy, which he ordered his military to prepare for by 2027. Former defense secretary Esper’s ideas included increasing the defense budget, adopting an asymmetric warfare strategy, getting the correct armaments, extending conscription, boosting training, reserving mobilization, storing vital items, and establishing resilient communications.
However, in the months since that visit and a year marked by constant PRC threats across the 100-mile Taiwan Strait, the discovery of Chinese spy balloons above America’s skies and police stations in our cities, more espionage revelations, and intimidating military moves against our allies in the region, solid progress has been made. Tsai made the bold and right decision to extend conscription from four months to twelve; defense spending is rising to 2.5 percent of GDP; critical items are being stockpiled; and the military is learning how to train for and implement a “porcupine & poison frog” defense strategy while facing near-daily PRC incursions across the strait. Importantly, polls show large majorities support these initiatives.
This last part is encouraging. The increased willingness of all Taiwanese to fight for their country—a whole-society approach—is the key to repelling a Chinese invasion. Russia’s unjustified invasion of Ukraine sparked this evolution, and the Ukrainian people’s heroism and success sustained it. Let’s hope Xi is learning the bitter lesson the Ukrainians are teaching Vladimir Putin: that a smaller nation with the determination to win can defeat a larger rival and inspire global solidarity.
Further action is needed, starting with a heightened feeling of urgency in Taipei and Washington. Former defense secretary Esper believes that Taiwan’s defense budget should be increased, stockpiling enlarged, and training reforms hastened, the U.S. must re-prioritize and speed up arms supplies. The recent initiative to use the Presidential Drawdown Authority was positive, but Washington could use the Defense Manufacturing Act to reallocate weapons manufacturing and the Excess Defense Articles program to transport systems like soon-to-be-mothballed Littoral Combat Ships to Taipei.
Chinese Could Possibly Attack Taiwan Sooner
Congress should give the Pentagon multiyear production authorities and appropriations to build up their defense industrial base and start producing thousands of anti-ship and anti-air missiles, sea mines and mine layers, loitering munitions, and other weapons for U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan, and others. Xi could strike sooner if Taiwan’s election upsets him or if the Chinese economy fails and he needs a foreign crisis to distract his people. His military deadline is only a few years away.
Finally, more should be done to mobilize the globe around another endangered democracy. President Biden’s summit with Japan and South Korea was a good effort to unite allies against a malicious Chinese Communist Party aiming to overthrow international rules and govern the world. But more multilateral efforts (especially with our NATO allies) specific to Taiwan, such as joint strait transits, enhanced air and sea patrols, multilateral exercises, and military training, would push back against Beijing’s new norms and improve deterrence.
Non-military steps like signing a free trade agreement with Taiwan and removing double taxation will improve economic links between our countries and encourage others to do so. This would allow Taipei to de-risk its commerce and investments outside the PRC, as all states should do. Unfortunately, this era of great power struggle has descended into a hot war in Europe and a cold war in Asia. This is what autocracies are presenting, not what democracies want.
“Ukraine is on the front line, and everyone must help them win, but everyone must learn from that battle and use the short time we have to prevent Taiwan from being the next front in this global struggle” stated Esper. After all, America’s security and economy are at stake.
